TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 100.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome—that Musk will post between 90 and 114 times—is at 0.1%. The market resolves based on posts from https://x.com/elonmusk, counting main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 19, 2026, as that is the final day of the betting period and when the market will be resolved.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 17 12:00 PM ET to October 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
It’s interesting to compare the probabilities reflected in this market to public opinion polls or expert analyses regarding Elon Musk’s online behavior. While polls can gauge general expectations, this market represents a collective forecast where individuals put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between prediction market odds and polling averages can highlight areas where informed traders possess unique insights or anticipate events differently than the broader public. The current implied probability in this market offers a distinct perspective on the likely number of tweets.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market price indicates what percentage of the total volume is betting on a particular range of tweets from Elon Musk during the specified period. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on his official X (formerly Twitter) account between October 17 and October 19, 2026, inclusive. The final count will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The outcome will then be used to determine which shares payout at 1 USDC each.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to Oct 19, 2026. Major announcements from Elon Musk or X, changes in his posting habits, or significant events impacting his public image could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, etc.) might also cause fluctuations. Additionally, broader social media trends or discussions about his online activity could play a role in shaping the market’s predictions. Any developments that alter perceptions of his likely tweeting behavior will likely impact trading activity.
