TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 90 and 114 tweets on X (formerly Twitter) between October 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 89.3% probability. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 65 and 89 tweets during that same period, is at 5.0%. The market resolves based on the count of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts from the account https://x.com/elonmusk, so keep a close watch on Musk’s activity leading up to the end of the betting period on October 14, 2026.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 12 12:00 PM ET to October 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
It's often observed that prediction market odds, like those in this market, can differ from traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, revealing stronger convictions. Polling averages may be influenced by social desirability bias, where respondents answer in a way they perceive as favorable. The price action in this market provides a real-money assessment of the probability of various outcomes, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than polls alone. The current implied probabilities are shaped by informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Elon Musk will tweet a high number of times, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. The current volume of $620,624 indicates active trading.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 12th and October 14th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that accurately reflects the verified tweet count, and 0% for all other outcomes. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the result.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in Elon Musk’s posting habits leading up to the event date, announcements regarding major projects or controversies involving him, or even significant events on X itself could all influence trader sentiment. Major news cycles or geopolitical events might also affect his online activity. Any indication of a shift in his priorities or increased/decreased engagement with the platform would likely cause the odds to shift. Unexpected technical issues with X could also play a role, potentially limiting his ability to tweet.
