TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 2:03 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 10th and October 12th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 90.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 65 to 89 posts in the same timeframe – is at 9.5%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s official X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep a close eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 12, 2026, as that is the end of the betting period and when the market will be settled based on the total number of qualifying posts.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 10 12:00 PM ET to October 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
It's interesting to consider how the predictions made in this market align with public opinion polls or expert analyses regarding Elon Musk’s typical social media activity. While polls might offer a general sense of expectations, this market provides a quantifiable, financially-motivated forecast. Discrepancies between the odds here and external estimates could indicate that traders possess unique information or have a different interpretation of the factors influencing Musk’s tweeting behavior. Comparing this market to outside forecasts can reveal valuable insights into collective intelligence and potential biases.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares indicating a higher tweet count, the price of those shares increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment surrounding Elon Musk's potential activity.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 10th and October 12th, 2026, will be the determining factor. The market will settle based on a publicly available and independently verifiable count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The resolution will reflect the total number of tweets, regardless of content or engagement, within the defined period.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk or X, changes to his social media strategy, or even announcements regarding his schedule could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected technical issues with X itself, or a significant shift in public discourse surrounding Musk, could also play a role. Furthermore, any statements Musk makes about his own social media usage patterns leading up to October 2026 are likely to be closely watched and factored into the pricing of this market.
