TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 1st and October 3rd, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 91.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 40 to 64 posts – is at 4.9%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s official X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch the activity on Musk’s X account leading up to October 3, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the final post count will be tallied for resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 1 12:00 PM ET to October 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting the tweet count of an individual is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analysts often monitor Elon Musk's historical tweeting patterns and public statements to anticipate his future activity. These analyses often differ from the collective wisdom expressed in this market, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This market reflects the aggregated beliefs of informed traders, potentially offering a more nuanced perspective than simple polls.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for a share representing a specific tweet count range.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 1st and October 3rd, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that most accurately reflects the actual number of tweets, as determined by the platform's process for verifying event outcomes.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk or X, changes to his social media strategy, or significant world events that capture his attention could all influence his tweeting activity. Unexpected personal events, controversies, or shifts in public discourse could also play a role. Furthermore, any statements Musk makes regarding his future social media usage or planned absences could directly affect the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the market's price.
