TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
predict

What will the ECB rate change be?

Volume:
$5,551

No change

 - Predict

No change - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:37 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$12,107
$3,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

25 bps increase

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$206
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

25 bps decrease

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$206
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

50+ bps increase

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$218
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the ECB interest rates market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders believe interest rates will land in October 2026, alongside a chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The current 24-hour volume is $21, and the total volume traded to date is $5,551. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and published reports, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential scenarios. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply a collective assessment of risk that diverges from conventional wisdom. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in expectations before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the ECB interest rates. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The market's efficiency relies on the participation of informed traders and the free flow of information, creating a real-time assessment of future interest rate expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official interest rate decision announced by the European Central Bank in October 2026. The exact interest rate level set by the ECB will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Predict once the official announcement is made and verified.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Major economic data releases from the Eurozone, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and unemployment rates, will heavily influence trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events, shifts in global economic conditions, and changes in the ECB’s forward guidance are also likely catalysts. Furthermore, statements from key ECB officials regarding monetary policy could trigger substantial price movements in this market as traders react to perceived changes in the central bank’s intentions.