TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:04h:02m
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These markets track whether DraftKings will achieve various levels of year-over-year growth in app downloads during October 2026. The thresholds represent different magnitudes of growth, with higher thresholds indicating more substantial increases compared to the same month in the previous year.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc DraftKings App Downloads index for October 2026, measured year-over-year relative to October 2025. The index value of 100 represents equal downloads compared to the prior year, with higher values indicating growth and lower values indicating decline. Final determination occurs at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day following the end of October 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the published index exceeds the respective threshold (55, 105, 125, 145, 165, 185, 205, 225, or 465), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with DraftKings, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for DraftKings app downloads. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and can reflect real-time expectations that may differ from static analyst reports. If analysts predict a specific download range, comparing that to the probabilities implied by the prices on Kalshi can reveal whether the market is more or less optimistic than the consensus view. The market's wisdom-of-the-crowd approach can provide a unique perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of DraftKings app downloads in October 2026. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. The current top outcome, 'Will DraftKings App Downloads for October 2026 be above 55?', has a chance percentage of 99.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official number of DraftKings app downloads reported for the month of October 2026. The specific threshold for determining the winning outcome is defined within the market contract on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts after the resolution process is complete.
Several factors could significantly influence the DraftKings app download market. Major marketing campaigns launched by DraftKings, changes in state regulations regarding online sports betting, and the release of new features within the app are all potential catalysts. Competitive pressures from other sports betting platforms, as well as broader economic conditions impacting consumer spending, could also play a role. Any news related to DraftKings' partnerships or acquisitions could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations.