TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 9, 12:00 PM ET and October 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 9, 12:00 PM ET and October 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of Donald Trump posting to Truth Social during the specified period. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the collective wisdom of those actively trading in the market, offering a dynamic assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a review of Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account to determine if at least one post was made between October 9th and October 16th, 2026. The market will settle based on this objective verification, ensuring a transparent and unbiased determination of the result. Traders should monitor news sources and official statements as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential developments.
Several signals or events could significantly influence this market. Any announcements regarding Donald Trump’s future media plans, changes in his campaign strategy, or even significant political developments could shift trader sentiment. A major news event involving Trump, or a shift in his public engagement, would likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any technical issues or changes to the Truth Social platform itself could also impact the market. Traders will be closely watching for these catalysts as the resolution date of Oct 16, 2026 approaches.
