TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 2:07 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket suggest a high probability that Donald Trump will post between 0-19 Truth Social posts during the specified timeframe. This contrasts with typical polling data, which often focuses on broader public opinion regarding approval ratings or voting intentions. While polls can gauge sentiment, this market reflects what traders are willing to put their money on, representing a different kind of signal. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, attempting to forecast a specific event, while polls capture a snapshot of current opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the likely number of Truth Social posts from Donald Trump. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price, while significant price swings can suggest new information or changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 6 and October 13, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of official posts made on his verified Truth Social account during that period. The precise determination will rely on publicly available data and established verification processes, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Major political events, such as announcements regarding the 2028 presidential election, could shift attention and impact Trump's social media activity. Changes in his campaign strategy, legal developments, or significant news coverage could also play a role. Additionally, any statements Trump makes about his use of Truth Social, or changes to the platform itself, could move the market. Unexpected events, like a major technological disruption or a significant personal event, could also affect his posting behavior and, consequently, the market price.
