TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:29 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. This market, specifically, allows traders to express their beliefs about the frequency of Donald Trump’s activity on Truth Social, a factor not directly captured in standard polls. While polls gauge stated opinions, this market incentivizes accurate forecasting based on a wide range of information and analysis. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases in polling, or the unique insights of informed traders participating in this market, offering a distinct signal about potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting new information and changing sentiment. Higher demand for shares indicating a specific outcome will drive up the price, while increased selling pressure will lower it, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 30th and November 6th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of publicly accessible posts made directly by Donald Trump’s verified account on Truth Social during the specified timeframe. The exact number of posts will determine which outcome prevails in this market, providing a clear and objective result based on publicly available data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major political developments involving Donald Trump, such as announcements regarding a potential campaign or significant policy statements, could influence his activity on Truth Social. Changes in the media landscape, including increased scrutiny or favorable coverage, might also affect posting frequency. Unexpected events, like breaking news or controversies, could prompt more frequent posts. Finally, shifts in Trump’s communication strategy or the emergence of competing social media platforms could all impact trading activity in this market.
