TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:32 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability that Donald Trump will post between 180-199 Truth Social posts during the specified period. This contrasts with typical polling averages, which focus on broader public opinion regarding his overall popularity or political stances. While polls attempt to gauge sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will actually happen – the number of posts made. This difference arises because this market incentivizes accurate forecasting through financial rewards, whereas polls rely on self-reported data and are subject to biases. It's important to remember that both offer different perspectives on the situation.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 13 and October 20, 2026, will be tallied and compared against the market’s outcome ranges. The outcome will be determined by an objective count of posts published on his official Truth Social account during that timeframe. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will be verified to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major political developments involving Donald Trump, such as announcements regarding a potential campaign or legal proceedings, could influence trading activity. Changes in his social media strategy, or public statements about his use of Truth Social, would also be key catalysts. Unexpected events, like a major news cycle or a significant world event, could also affect his posting frequency. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment or media coverage surrounding Trump could impact traders’ beliefs and, consequently, the prices within this market.
