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Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:18h:04m
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the likelihood of Donald Trump’s activity on Truth Social. While polls capture stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put capital behind. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing respondent biases in polls or the informed speculation of traders in this market, who may consider a wider range of influencing factors. It’s important to remember that polls and prediction markets measure different things and provide complementary insights.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, signaling growing confidence in that outcome, while selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of posts made by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account between November 3 and November 10, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of publicly available posts made directly by Donald Trump’s verified account during the specified timeframe. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that accurately reflects the actual number of posts made, as determined by publicly available data.
