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Domino's US same store sales growth in Q3
kalshi

Will Domino's US same-store sales grow in Q3 2026?

Volume:
$10,815

Above 0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 10:31 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,133
N/A
N/A
$631
3mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.5%

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
$200
3mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above 2%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,695
N/A
N/A
$2,248
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 1%

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,750
N/A
N/A
$1,092
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,692
N/A
N/A
$838
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 4%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,120
N/A
N/A
$357
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
$758
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$588
N/A
N/A
$484
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$92
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$232
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 3%

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$64
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above 4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
3mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Above -1%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
Yes
Total markets: 13

Description

Domino's Pizza Inc will report its US same-store sales growth rate for the third quarter of 2026, measuring the percentage change in sales at existing locations compared to the prior year period. This metric indicates operational performance and customer demand at established stores.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Domino's Pizza Inc's official Q3 2026 financial reporting of US same-store sales growth percentage. The event uses tiered thresholds ranging from 0.5% to 5.0% growth, with each threshold representing a discrete resolution point. Each threshold is evaluated independently: if the reported US same-store sales growth exceeds the specified percentage threshold, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. The official growth figure must come from Domino's Pizza Inc's quarterly earnings report or SEC filings for Q3 2026. Same-store sales growth is calculated as the year-over-year percentage change in sales for stores open for at least one full year, excluding new store openings and closures.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Domino's Q3 same-store sales market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for whether the pizza chain will report above-4.5% same-store sales growth in its third quarter. Traders monitor current implied probability, 24-hour volume of $2,911, and total volume of $10,815 to gauge market sentiment on this earnings outcome. The dashboard provides a live window into how prediction market participants are pricing the likelihood of Domino's hitting that specific growth threshold, updated continuously as new trades execute.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from published analyst consensus. While Wall Street forecasters issue point estimates and ranges for Domino's quarterly same-store sales, traders here are pricing a binary outcome—above or below 4.5% growth. Market-implied odds can lead or lag analyst sentiment depending on new data, earnings whispers, or shifts in consumer spending signals. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus and decentralized trader conviction align on this earnings metric.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares tied to the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the event—traders holding the winning outcome receive a fixed payout once the result is confirmed. The bid-ask spread and trading volume reflect real-time conviction; tighter spreads and higher volume suggest greater confidence and liquidity, while wider spreads indicate uncertainty or thinner participation.

This market resolves around Feb 9, 2027, once Domino's reports its official Q3 same-store sales growth figure. The outcome is determined by whether that reported growth rate exceeds 4.5% or falls at or below it. Resolution is confirmed once the metric is verifiable from credible public sources, including the company's earnings announcement and SEC filings. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout shortly after verification.

Key catalysts include same-store sales trends reported by Domino's in prior quarters, consumer spending data, inflation and labor cost pressures, promotional activity, and comparable-store performance across the QSR sector. Earnings guidance, management commentary on pricing power, and same-day delivery trends also influence trader positioning. Macro signals—interest rates, employment, discretionary spending—can shift sentiment on restaurant traffic and ticket size. Any material update on franchisee health or digital ordering momentum may prompt repricing ahead of the official Q3 release.