TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:16 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track projected year-over-year changes in Dollar General's credit card spending for September 2026, using an index where 100 represents equal spending compared to the same month last year. Higher index values indicate increased spending growth relative to the prior year.
All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for the Dollar General Credit Card Spend index for September 2026. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions specifically tied to Dollar General, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline compared to the same month in the previous year. The underlying data comes from Carbon Arc's aggregated transaction panel, which updates daily. Once a market is settled using the initial reported value, any subsequent corrections or revisions to the data will not affect the outcome. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Dollar General or ownership of related trademarks.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a range of financial metrics and guidance, traders adjust prices based on current sentiment, recent data releases, and perceived risks, which can lead to divergence or alignment depending on recent events.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data for Dollar General’s September credit card spend, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Key signals that could move this market include preliminary retail sales reports, consumer spending data releases, changes in consumer confidence indices, and any major announcements from Dollar General regarding sales performance or credit card usage trends. Economic indicators affecting discretionary spending may also influence trader sentiment and shift odds before resolution.