TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Disney+ App Downloads in September
kalshi

Disney+ App Downloads in September

Volume:
$158,416

Above 91

 - Kalshi

Above 91 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 91

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,771
N/A
N/A
$6,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 87

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,571
N/A
N/A
$4,248
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,755
N/A
N/A
$2,505
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 95

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,661
N/A
N/A
$10,997
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 103

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,501
N/A
N/A
$7,997
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 127

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,785
N/A
N/A
$6,536
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 115

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,064
N/A
N/A
$6,269
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,395
N/A
N/A
$4,893
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 129

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,240
N/A
N/A
$3,781
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 133

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,055
N/A
N/A
$6,031
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 135

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,456
N/A
N/A
$4,894
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 99

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,121
N/A
N/A
$4,457
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,117
N/A
N/A
$2,574
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 131

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,144
N/A
N/A
$4,682
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 123

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,674
N/A
N/A
$4,199
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 125

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,277
N/A
N/A
$4,942
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 111

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,000
N/A
N/A
$2,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 107

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,831
N/A
N/A
$1,616
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of Disney+ app downloads for September 2026, using a year-over-year index to gauge growth or decline compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcomes depend on whether the reported index value surpasses specific thresholds, reflecting varying degrees of success or improvement in user acquisition.

Kalshi

These markets evaluate whether the Carbon Arc Disney+ App Downloads index for September 2026 exceeds one of several specified thresholds (ranging from 119 to 139). Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported index value for that month is above its respective threshold. The determination is based solely on the first value reported by Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index measures year-over-year performance, where a value of 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate a decline. Kalshi explicitly states it has no official affiliation with Disney or any associated entities, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Disney+ September downloads market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $36,372. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different download outcomes for September, offering a live view of market sentiment and activity for this specific prediction.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate broader trends and historical data, traders adjust prices based on recent news, platform performance, and subscriber behavior. This can lead to divergence, especially around key announcements or competitive launches.

On Kalshi, this market uses trader submissions to set its current probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The displayed chance reflects collective trader sentiment, updated continuously as new bids and offers appear. Volume of $158,416 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $36,372 indicates current activity levels. Traders can buy or sell contracts representing shares of each possible outcome, driving the price toward what they believe is the most likely result by Oct 15, 2026.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially reported data for Disney+ app downloads in September, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes on Oct 15, 2026. Major announcements about Disney+ subscription pricing, content releases, or marketing campaigns might boost expected user acquisition. Competitor activity — like new streaming service launches or price changes — could also influence trader expectations. Economic factors, including consumer spending trends and broader tech sector performance, may affect download projections. Any surprise partnerships or exclusive content deals announced by Disney could create rapid price movements as traders reassess likely outcomes.