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417,059
Markets across
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Texas
- Polymarket
Texas - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 23h:58m:35s
Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market offers a different perspective than traditional polling data. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities based on a wide range of information, including polls, fundraising data, expert analysis, and real-world events. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can highlight areas where the market believes polls are inaccurate or are not fully accounting for key factors influencing the race. It's important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have their strengths and weaknesses.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding the Democrats' best tossup Senate race.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Senate race is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which party ultimately controls the Senate following the election, as determined by official results and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges. This timeframe allows for the completion of the election process and the accurate determination of the final Senate composition.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from prominent figures, shifts in fundraising totals, significant polling changes, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all cause the odds to shift. Additionally, broader political events, such as national economic trends or major legislative developments, could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the market. Any news that alters perceptions of a candidate's viability or the overall competitiveness of the race has the potential to move this market.
