TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 2:08 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the range that contains the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for the Democratic Party for the specified window, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the most recent hourly odds value published for the Democratic Party before that point. If no hourly odds value has been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and will resolve according to the first window after the specified window for which an hourly odds value is published for the Democratic Party. If no such value is published by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest listed range. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to the highest listed range if the Democratic Party is the outcome of the underlying market, and otherwise to the lowest listed range. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the range that contains the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for the Democratic Party for the specified window, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the most recent hourly odds value published for the Democratic Party before that point. If no hourly odds value has been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and will resolve according to the first window after the specified window for which an hourly odds value is published for the Democratic Party. If no such value is published by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest listed range. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to the highest listed range if the Democratic Party is the outcome of the underlying market, and otherwise to the lowest listed range. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than traditional polling data regarding control of the Senate. Polling averages often capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific moment, while the Senate control market aggregates the informed opinions of many traders. These traders are incentivized to assess all available information – including polls, fundraising data, economic indicators, and expert analysis – to make accurate predictions. As such, the odds on Polymarket may diverge from polling averages, potentially offering a more nuanced forecast of the likely outcome. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the potential for a shift in Senate control.
On Polymarket, the Senate control market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the probability of different outcomes. The price of these shares dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, weighted by the amount of capital each trader is willing to risk. The current volume in this market is $17,904, with $2,193 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating the level of interest and activity surrounding this event.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Senate composition is verifiable from credible public reporting following the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution will be based on which party controls a majority of seats in the United States Senate after the election results are certified. The market will determine which party holds the majority, regardless of individual seat outcomes, focusing solely on the overall control of the chamber. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 23, 2026. Major economic indicators, unexpected political scandals involving key candidates, significant shifts in fundraising totals, and changes in national or state-level polling data are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, unforeseen geopolitical events or major policy announcements could also influence trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Any developments that alter perceptions of a party’s chances of winning key Senate races will likely be reflected in the market’s pricing.
