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Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?
polymarket

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Volume:
$163,483

Gavin Newsom

 - Polymarket

Gavin Newsom - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 31, 2:06 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Gavin Newsom

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jon Ossoff

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kamala Harris

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Josh Shapiro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Democratic nomination odds market tracks the implied probability of various candidates winning the nomination. It displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $5,824. Users can see how the market is interpreting the likelihood of each potential nominee, and observe changes in sentiment over time. The total volume traded in this market is $163,483, indicating the level of interest and participation. This provides a real-time view of collective predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment of candidate viability than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market aggregates real-money wagers, potentially revealing more about who participants believe has the best *chance* of winning, not just who is currently most popular. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, informed traders, and the ability to update beliefs rapidly in response to new information. It's important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the Democratic nomination race.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning the nomination. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that candidate being the nominee. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the eventual Democratic nominee is verified against credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official announcement of the nominee by the Democratic National Committee or a similar authoritative source. The market will determine which candidate was most likely to win the nomination, as reflected by the trading activity leading up to the resolution date. The final price of shares in each candidate’s market will reflect the market’s final assessment.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major debate performances, significant fundraising announcements, endorsements from prominent figures, and shifts in polling data are all likely to cause price fluctuations. Unexpected events, such as a candidate dropping out of the race or a major scandal, could also lead to substantial movements. Furthermore, any news relating to the overall political landscape or the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.