TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
DeepSeek market share this week
kalshi

What is DeepSeek's market share?

Volume:
$79,596

Above 21.9%

 - Kalshi

Above 21.9% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 21.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,052
N/A
N/A
$4,285
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 20.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,138
N/A
N/A
$6,134
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 23%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,889
N/A
N/A
$11,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 22.6%

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,175
N/A
N/A
$6,073
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,755
N/A
N/A
$7,755
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 23.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,355
N/A
N/A
$8,091
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 23.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,233
N/A
N/A
$7,752
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,402
N/A
N/A
$6,865
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,597
N/A
N/A
$5,597
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the weekly market performance of DeepSeek, an AI model, by measuring its usage share against other models on OpenRouter during a specific week. The outcome depends on whether DeepSeek's share exceeds various predefined thresholds, reflecting its competitive position in the AI-driven text generation space.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether DeepSeek achieves specific market share thresholds on OpenRouter for the week of September 8, 2026. Each market within the event corresponds to a distinct percentage threshold, ranging from 20.8% to 25.8%. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if DeepSeek's market share, measured by model author, exceeds the respective threshold as reported at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the week in question. If DeepSeek's share is not separately identified—if it is grouped under 'Others' or not listed—the market resolves to 'No'. All markets operate independently, with each threshold representing a unique condition for resolution. The platform disclaims any official affiliation with the governing benchmark, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts offers a unique perspective on collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. If analysts are predicting a specific outcome for DeepSeek’s market share, it’s insightful to see if traders on Kalshi agree, disagree, or assign a different probability. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities not fully captured by conventional analysis. It’s a valuable exercise to consider both viewpoints when forming an informed opinion.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the DeepSeek market share. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. This contrasts with fixed-odds betting, where the odds are set in advance and don’t change based on subsequent trading activity.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the actual DeepSeek market share as determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions are settled on Kalshi following the resolution date. The final result will determine which contracts pay out and at what value, based on the market’s initial pricing.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 21, 2026. Any major announcements from DeepSeek regarding new product launches, partnerships, or financial performance would likely impact trading activity. Shifts in the broader AI landscape, such as competitor actions or changes in regulatory policies, could also influence perceptions of DeepSeek’s market position. Unexpected news about key personnel or technological breakthroughs within the company could also cause the market to react, as traders adjust their assessments of the likely outcome for the DeepSeek market share.