TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks potential future price movements of DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT memory modules, focusing on whether the spot price will exceed various thresholds by a specific date. Such markets allow participants to speculate or hedge against changes in semiconductor pricing, reflecting broader trends in technology demand, supply chain dynamics, and economic indicators.
All markets resolve based on the DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT spot price as reported by Ornn at 4 PM ET on October 9, 2026. Each market has a distinct price threshold, and if the spot price exceeds that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If Ornn does not publish data for the exact date and time, the most recent available data prior to that time will be used for resolution. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying price data are disregarded, and all evaluations use the USD iteration of the index, with values rounded to two decimal places.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on the probability of different price outcomes for the DDR5 16Gb module by Oct 9, 2026. The current top outcome reflects the most likely price point as assessed by market participants, with odds adjusting dynamically based on trading volume and any new information that impacts memory market expectations. Volume of $0 indicates overall interest.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by authoritative financial data sources that track the official market closing value for the specified week.
Several signals could shift expectations before Oct 9, 2026. Key catalysts include new announcements from major memory manufacturers about production yields or capacity expansions, changes in global demand due to emerging technologies or economic shifts, and commodity price fluctuations for raw materials like DRAM chips. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions or trade policy changes affecting technology imports can also influence this market, as can competitive pricing moves by major PC and server manufacturers.