TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 10d:21h:05m
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This event tracks whether the spot price of a specific DDR5 memory module exceeds various thresholds on a set date. The resolution depends on real-time pricing data from a designated source, reflecting market conditions at the specified time.
All markets resolve based on the DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 spot price as reported by Ornn at 4 PM ET on November 13, 2026. Each market has a distinct price threshold; if the spot price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. If Ornn does not publish data for the exact time, the most recent available data before the deadline is used. Post-expiration revisions to the price are ignored, and all values are considered in USD, rounded to two decimal places. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether its specific threshold is met.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for DDR5 memory prices. However, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of information and opinions, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst reports. If analysts generally predict stable or decreasing prices, this market might show lower probabilities for the price being above a certain threshold, and vice versa. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 spot price will be above a specific level at 4 PM ET on November 13th. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes dynamically based on supply and demand. Higher demand for contracts indicating a higher price increases the contract price, and vice-versa.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the spot price of DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 at 4 PM ET on November 13th. The market will determine whether the price is above or below the level specified in the market contract at that time, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of DDR5 memory and, therefore, move this market. Major announcements from DRAM manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, or Micron regarding production levels or pricing strategies would likely have a significant impact. Changes in demand from major computer manufacturers or data center operators could also shift prices. Unexpected supply chain disruptions, geopolitical events, or broader economic trends affecting the semiconductor industry could all contribute to volatility in this market.