TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding CZ’s posting activity. While polls attempt to gauge expressed opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on the outcome. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting. Any discrepancies between this market and polling averages may indicate differing levels of information or biases present in each method. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s efficiency depends on the number of participants and the information they bring to bear on the question of CZ’s posting frequency during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by CZ during the period of September 29 to October 6, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of publicly available posts across his verified social media accounts. The specific definition of a 'post' will be determined by Polymarket and made available to traders prior to resolution, ensuring transparency and a fair assessment of the event.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from CZ regarding his social media strategy or planned absences could shift trader sentiment. Major events within the cryptocurrency space, particularly those involving Binance, could also influence his posting activity and, consequently, the market. Unexpected news related to regulatory scrutiny or legal proceedings involving CZ could also be a catalyst. Finally, broader trends in social media engagement and the overall public interest in cryptocurrency could play a role in how this market trades.
