TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 3:42 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a significant chance of a curfew being implemented in a major French city. This contrasts with recent polling data, which suggests a lower probability of such an event occurring. While polls capture a snapshot of public opinion, this market reflects what traders are willing to wager, potentially incorporating information not readily available in polls, such as intelligence reports or government discussions. It's important to note that both methods offer different perspectives on the same underlying question.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether a curfew has been officially declared and enforced in a major French city before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by examining official government announcements and news reports from reputable sources. This market provides a way to forecast this political event and its potential impact.
Several factors could significantly influence the French curfew market. A sudden increase in crime rates in a major French city, or heightened security concerns related to political unrest or terrorism, could drive up the probability of a curfew. Conversely, a statement from the French government explicitly ruling out a curfew, or a demonstrable improvement in public safety, could lower the odds. Major political developments, such as a change in government or a shift in public policy, could also have a substantial impact on this market.
