TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Costco Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

Costco Credit Card Spend in September

Volume:
$46,605

Above 100

 - Kalshi

Above 100 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,159
N/A
N/A
$2,776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 99

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,613
N/A
N/A
$3,789
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 97

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,439
N/A
N/A
$2,396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,600
N/A
N/A
$2,644
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 91

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,179
N/A
N/A
$3,578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 94

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,717
N/A
N/A
$3,282
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,409
N/A
N/A
$1,860
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 95

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,554
N/A
N/A
$1,649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 103

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,937
N/A
N/A
$1,965
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 106

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 109

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 112

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of Costco's credit card spending for September 2026, measured against various thresholds. The outcomes depend on whether year-over-year spending growth meets or exceeds specific levels, with data sourced from Carbon Arc's transaction panel.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Costco Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, with each market having a distinct threshold that determines a 'Yes' outcome if the index exceeds that value. The index reflects year-over-year changes in spending, where 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Determination for all markets is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, and any corrections or revisions made after the market settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is derived from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction data, matched to the same period of the previous year and updated daily. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects a different view than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean on historical spending trends and economic indicators, traders are pricing in a range of possible outcomes based on real-time data and sentiment. The gap between these two perspectives can highlight areas where the market expects unexpected shifts.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the officially reported Costco credit card spend for September, removing any speculation and aligning the market’s result with publicly available data.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key economic reports, changes in consumer spending behavior, and any announcements from Costco regarding promotions or credit card usage trends may all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader macroeconomic factors, such as shifts in interest rates or consumer confidence, can also impact expectations and move the market closer to resolution.