TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks Coors Light's sales performance relative to the same month in the previous year, using a specialized index. This index reflects changes in consumer purchasing behavior, influenced by factors like marketing campaigns, seasonal trends, and economic conditions. The outcome depends on whether the reported growth exceeds specific thresholds.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Coors Light Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026. The index measures year-over-year change, with 100 indicating equal sales to the prior year, values above 100 signifying growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., above 81, above 84, etc.), and if the first reported value by Carbon Arc meets or exceeds its respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions by Carbon Arc do not alter the outcome. The index is derived from a point-of-sale receipt panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year, with daily updates as new data becomes available.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view of market expectations. While analysts may provide consensus estimates based on historical performance and industry trends, traders on Kalshi price in real-time information, including recent sales data, marketing campaigns, and consumer sentiment. This can lead to divergence, where the market implies a higher or lower probability of certain growth outcomes than the average analyst projection.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the sales growth figure for Coors Light in September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will reflect officially reported financial data, typically sourced from the company’s earnings releases or regulatory filings, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution. Key catalysts include weekly or monthly sales reports from Coors Light, broader industry trends affecting beverage demand, promotional campaigns or new product launches, and macroeconomic factors such as consumer spending trends or weather events impacting sales. Any unexpected news — whether positive or negative — is likely to influence trader sentiment and move the odds on Kalshi as the September results approach.