TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Coca-Cola's sales in September 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the reported growth index exceeds specific thresholds, reflecting consumer spending trends through point-of-sale data.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026. The index measures year-over-year change in sales, with 100 indicating no change from the prior year. Values above 100 signify growth, while values below 100 indicate decline. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., above 93, above 96, etc.), and if the first reported value meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions to the index will not affect the outcome. The index is derived from a panel that captures in-store and online purchases via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year, and updates daily as new data becomes available.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Coca-Cola's sales growth. While analysts may incorporate a range of fundamental data and historical trends, traders in this market price in real-time signals and sentiment, which can sometimes lead to notable differences in implied probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the sales data for September is officially reported and verifiable from credible public sources. The final figure will determine which priced outcome — typically categorized by percentage growth — matches the actual performance, settling all positions accordingly.
Key signals that could shift this market include major product launches, unexpected supply chain disruptions, significant economic announcements affecting consumer spending, and early retail sales indicators. Any news that traders interpret as strongly influencing Coca-Cola’s September point-of-sale performance can cause rapid re-pricing of odds in the market as participants adjust their expectations.