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Georgia
- Polymarket
Georgia - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:08h:27m
Will Georgia be the closest Governor's race in 2026?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific moment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals over time. Polls often focus on who will win, whereas this market focuses on which race will be the *closest*. This difference in focus can lead to notable discrepancies. It’s important to remember that polls are subject to sampling error and strategic response bias, while this market reflects real-money incentives for accurate forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a particular state will have the closest governor’s race. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders buy shares in a specific state, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each state being the closest contest.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the state with the smallest margin of victory in its governor’s race, as reported by major news outlets, will be considered the closest. The resolution will be based on the official vote count and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges that definitively establish the final results. This market will determine which state’s gubernatorial election had the narrowest winning margin.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major candidate announcements, shifts in national political trends, and economic developments within key states could all impact trading activity. Unexpected scandals or gaffes involving leading candidates would likely cause price fluctuations. Polling data releases, while not directly mirrored by the market, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any news regarding potential legal challenges to election results or changes to voting laws in specific states could create volatility in this market.
