TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico? - Polymarket
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Vol.
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:15m
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?
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Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?
Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the South Dakota/New Mexico Senate race. Polling data often reflects a snapshot in time, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, continuously updating as new information emerges. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors beyond simple voter preference, such as strategic considerations and potential turnout effects. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of the race's dynamics.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about which Senate race will be closer. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate diverse perspectives and provide a real-time assessment of the race’s potential.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which Senate race—South Dakota or New Mexico—has a smaller margin of victory on election night. The margin of victory will be determined by the official vote count. This allows for a clear and objective determination of which race was ultimately closer, providing a definitive outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Nov 4, 2026. Major events like candidate debates, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected endorsements could shift voter sentiment and, consequently, the market's odds. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, will also likely have an impact. Finally, any unforeseen circumstances affecting either candidate, such as scandals or health issues, could trigger a rapid reassessment of the race’s dynamics and move this market.
