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Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?
Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas? - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 22h:05m:02s
Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals over time, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured by polls, such as campaign fundraising, candidate debate performances, and evolving national political trends. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inherent limitations of both polling and prediction markets, but this market offers a unique signal based on incentivized forecasting.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up its price, indicating greater confidence among traders. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, adjusting their positions and influencing the price.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate wins the Senate election in either Nebraska or Texas, as determined by official election results. The market will settle to 100% for the winning candidate’s state and 0% for the losing candidate’s state. Traders should monitor news sources and official election websites for updates as the election approaches and results are announced. The final outcome will be based on the certified election results.
Several key signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 4, 2026. Major events such as primary election results, candidate announcements, significant fundraising reports, and unexpected political endorsements could all shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, shifts in national political trends, economic indicators, or major policy debates could influence perceptions of the races in Nebraska and Texas. Any substantial change in polling data, particularly in key demographics, would also likely move this market, as would unforeseen scandals or controversies involving the candidates.
