TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:03h:16m
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
$
Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?
Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Montana" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Jersey" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Montana" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Jersey" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction markets offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data for this Senate race. While polls capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific moment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders who continuously update their predictions based on new developments. This dynamic approach can sometimes lead to divergences from polling averages, potentially reflecting a more nuanced assessment of the race’s trajectory. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Montana or New Jersey Senate race. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Montana or New Jersey Senate race is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official election results as reported by relevant authorities, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market, including major campaign announcements, shifts in polling data, significant fundraising reports, and unexpected events affecting the candidates or the political landscape. Media coverage and expert analysis can also play a role, as they shape public perception and inform traders' decisions. The closer we get to Nov 4, 2026, the more sensitive this market may become to new information and developments.
