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Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire? - Polymarket
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Vol.
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:07h:31m
Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
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Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Michigan and New Hampshire Senate races. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and indicating growing confidence in a particular result. This creates a dynamic and efficient way to forecast the races’ outcomes.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party controls each Senate seat following the November 2026 election. The outcome will be determined by official election results and verified against credible public sources. Traders should monitor news reports and official announcements as the election approaches to stay informed about the progress of the races and the potential resolution timeline.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign finance reports, significant endorsements from influential figures, unexpected candidate gaffes, and shifts in national political trends could all impact trader sentiment. Key debates and primary election results will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any major economic or geopolitical events occurring between now and the election could influence voter preferences and, consequently, the market’s price. Unexpected developments in either the Michigan or New Hampshire races are likely to cause substantial shifts in trading activity.
