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Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?
Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas? - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:00h:38m
Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Maine Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Maine Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Maine and Texas Senate races. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Higher trading volume generally indicates greater confidence and more active participation in shaping the market’s assessment of the race.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Senate elections in Maine and Texas are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which state experiences a change in Senate representation following the November elections. The market will determine which of these two states is considered to have the ‘closer’ race, based on the final vote tallies. The outcome will be determined by objective election results, not by subjective interpretations or media narratives.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign finance reports revealing a fundraising advantage for one candidate could shift probabilities. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures or key demographic groups could also cause movement. Significant shifts in polling data, particularly in response to debates or major news events, would likely be reflected in the market. Finally, any unforeseen events—such as a candidate withdrawing from the race or a major scandal—could dramatically alter the perceived likelihood of each outcome in the Maine and Texas Senate races.
