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Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?
Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska? - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:03h:44m
Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Kansas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Kansas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election. This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Kansas Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Kansas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Kansas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election. This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Kansas Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Kansas and Nebraska Senate races. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, weighting, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate quality assessments, and potential shifts in the political landscape. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Kansas and Nebraska Senate races. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market odds are constantly adjusting to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Kansas and Nebraska Senate elections are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which of the two states has a closer Senate race, defined by the smaller margin of victory between the candidates. Resolution will be based on official election results as reported by relevant election authorities, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major developments in either the Kansas or Nebraska Senate races, such as significant fundraising announcements, unexpected endorsements, or controversies involving the candidates, could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in national political trends, economic indicators, or major policy debates could also influence perceptions of the races’ competitiveness. Finally, the release of new, high-quality polling data that deviates substantially from current expectations could prompt a re-evaluation of probabilities within this market.
