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Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine? - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:38m
Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Iowa" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Iowa has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Maine Senate election. This market will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Iowa Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Iowa" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Iowa has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Maine Senate election. This market will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Iowa Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on a wide range of information. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, poll weighting, and the market’s ability to incorporate real-time news and events. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the likely outcome of the Iowa and Maine Senate races.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about which Senate race—Iowa or Maine—will be closer. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the race’s competitiveness. The current implied probability of the top outcome is 72.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final vote counts in both the Iowa and Maine Senate races, determining which race had a smaller margin of victory. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome deemed closer based on these official results. Traders should monitor news sources for official election results as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major shifts in polling data, significant fundraising announcements from either campaign, endorsements from prominent figures, and unforeseen events impacting voter turnout are all potential catalysts. Debates, campaign gaffes, or breaking news stories could also influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of shares in this market. Unexpected economic data releases or national political trends could also play a role in shaping perceptions of the Iowa and Maine Senate races.
