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Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas?
Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas?
- Polymarket
Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas? - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:08h:17m
Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas?
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Closer Senate Race: Georgia or Kansas?
Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Georgia" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Georgia has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Kansas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Kansas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Kansas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Georgia Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Georgia" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Georgia has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Kansas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Kansas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Kansas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Georgia Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market offers a different perspective than traditional polling data. Polling averages often show a close race in both Georgia and Kansas, but the implied probabilities reflected in this market suggest a degree of uncertainty. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and rely on self-reported data, while this market represents a continuous assessment of probabilities based on people putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that aggregates the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which state’s Senate race – Georgia or Kansas – has the smaller margin of victory as determined by official election results. The outcome will be determined by the official vote counts certified by each state’s election authorities. This market provides a way to assess the likelihood of different scenarios before the election results are finalized, offering a unique perspective on the political landscape.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or candidate town halls, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also play a role. Furthermore, significant endorsements from influential figures or changes in fundraising totals could influence trading activity. Any polling data releases showing a substantial shift in either the Georgia or Kansas race would also likely move this market.
