TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 1:46 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Congressional Leadership Fund is a major Republican super PAC focused on supporting House candidates. This event tracks how much cash the organization has available at the end of the third quarter of 2026, which reflects its financial resources and ability to fund campaign activities in the final stretch before the election.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the Congressional Leadership Fund's cash on hand as reported in official Federal Election Commission filings as of September 30, 2026. The event establishes seven distinct thresholds at $145 million, $155 million, $165 million, $175 million, $185 million, $195 million, and $205 million. Each threshold operates independently: if the fund's cash on hand exceeds a given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses only the first official or non-preliminary FEC release; subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional polling averages, this market often reflects a more nuanced outlook by incorporating real-money bets and trader insights. While polls capture public opinion snapshots, this market can react faster to new developments and financial incentives, sometimes showing wider or narrower margins depending on recent news or analyst reports.
On Kalshi, this market uses a continuous double auction where traders submit bids and asks to determine the current implied probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects collective trader expectations about the future level of CLF cash reserves, adjusted for risk and market depth. Volume of $8,518 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $299 indicates current activity levels. Traders can also influence pricing through liquidity provision, helping to narrow spreads and improve market efficiency.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will be based on officially released financial statements or reputable news sources covering CLF’s cash position at the end of Q3.
Several signals could shift expectations in this market before Nov 15, 2026. Quarterly earnings reports, debt financing announcements, or major operational changes may reveal new information about cash position trends. Market sentiment around broader economic conditions or sector performance might also influence trader behavior. Any surprise regulatory developments or strategic pivots could produce rapid price movements as participants reassess probabilities.
