TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
polymarket

Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Volume:
$5,429,926

July 1

 - Polymarket

July 1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 1:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,157,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$330,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$239,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$224,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

July 17

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$216,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$96,546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$88,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$59,762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33,957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$675,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$395,756
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$328,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$171,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$141,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 18

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks whether Anthropic will restore public access to Claude Fable 5 (also known as Claude Mythos) for US customers following its suspension on June 12, 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 100.0% on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Anthropic or consensus credible reporting, with the betting period closing on July 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET—the deadline by which the model must be restored to qualify for a Yes resolution.

Polymarket

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Claude Fable 5 US restoration market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity around whether Anthropic will restore access to Claude Fable 5 for US customers by a specified date. The dashboard displays the current probability implied by trader positions, historical price movements, and trading volume. This market aggregates the collective forecast of prediction market participants who buy and sell shares based on their conviction about the likelihood and timing of the restoration event.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts because traders face direct financial consequences for incorrect predictions. While analysts may rely on public statements and industry trends, this market prices in live sentiment from participants monitoring Anthropic's regulatory status, technical developments, and competitive positioning. The odds here can move faster than analyst reports when new information emerges, making them a complementary signal to conventional research.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling binary outcome shares, with the price reflecting the probability that Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by the deadline. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share costs between $0 and $1, and the platform's automated market maker adjusts prices based on order flow and liquidity. The current implied probability represents the consensus forecast among active traders at any given moment.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the restoration status is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Claude Fable 5 becomes accessible to US customers through official Anthropic channels by that deadline. Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic, regulatory developments, and product availability across the company's platforms as key signals approaching the resolution date.

Major catalysts include official statements from Anthropic about US product roadmaps, regulatory or compliance updates affecting AI model availability, competitive product launches, and changes to US AI policy. Technical announcements regarding model updates or feature rollouts could shift trader expectations about timing. Media coverage of Anthropic's business strategy, funding developments, or partnerships may also influence sentiment. Real-time monitoring of the company's official channels and regulatory filings will help traders anticipate market-moving developments.