TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.7b

24H VOL:

$162,970,420

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,740,912,349

501,518

Markets across

37,286

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,933

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA

Science and Technology

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

polymarket

predict

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Jan 11, 2026, 6:22 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST

Total volume:

$25,408,486

Volume 24h:

$275,265

2,248%

Liquidity:

$439,386

41%

Open interest:

$5,003,123N/A

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

predict

Trade on Predict

At 5¢ buys you 2,000 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $2,000 | Net Profit: $1,900 Multiplier: 20.00x | ROI: 1,900% APY not meaningful 70 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

predict

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

5%

Yes 5¢

No 96¢

1¢

$10,883

$1,007,404

0.35%

0.76%

N/A

2mo 1w 3d

active

polymarket

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

5%

1%

Yes 4.6¢

No 95.5¢

0.1¢

$428,503

$24,401,081

1%

2%

N/A

2mo 1w 3d

active

PH Consensus

4.6%

Yes 4.8¢

No 95.8¢

Avg: 0.6¢

Max: 1¢

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) will be passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical criteria for resolution based on the legislative status of H.R.3633 by the specified deadline.Primary resolution logic: Congress.gov’s legislation tracker for H.R.3633

Core resolution logic:

The market resolves to "Yes" if H.R.3633 is enacted into law by December 31, 2026
The market resolves to "No" if the bill fails to pass both chambers or is not signed into law by the deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

veto override: If the President vetoes the bill but Congress overrides the veto before the deadline, the market still resolves to "Yes"
repealer legislation: If a subsequent law repeals the Clarity Act before January 1, 2027, the original passage still counts as resolution "Yes"

Timing: Resolution occurs by January 15, 2027 to allow time for official legislative records to be finalizedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Clarity Act passage market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of this legislation becoming law. It displays current probabilities, volume of $25,408,486}, and 24-hour volume of $272,292}, letting users see a consolidated view of market sentiment toward the Clarity Act.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader sentiment incorporating factors beyond public opinion, such as legislative strategy and political maneuvering. While polling averages capture general voter attitudes, market prices can diverge due to insider expectations or recent developments affecting the bill's prospects. The gap between these two measures often highlights where expert or invested views differ from the broader public.

On Polymarket and Predict, prices can vary because of differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more politically engaged traders who have recent insights, while the other could reflect broader, less specialized betting. This can lead to distinct probability assessments, with Polymarket currently favoring Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? at 4.5%, and Predict leaning toward Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? at 5.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result depends on whether formal signing occurs by the relevant date, based on official government announcements and widely covered news sources.

Key events that could shift probabilities include major legislative votes, statements from key political figures, changes in party control of Congress, or unexpected political developments. News coverage of negotiations, amendments, or executive positions on the Clarity Act can also cause rapid shifts in trader sentiment and market pricing before the final resolution date.