TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 8:51 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Christine Lagarde will step down from her role leading the European Central Bank at any point through the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of her departure stands at 30.0%. Resolution will be determined by official statements from Lagarde and the ECB, with credible news reports serving as a secondary source. Watch for any formal announcement of resignation or removal, which would immediately resolve the market to Yes regardless of the effective date of her departure.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Christine Lagarde will still be ECB president by the resolution date. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher probability of the event occurring. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the outcome, allowing traders to express their views and profit from correctly anticipating the future. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of those participating in the market.
This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether Christine Lagarde is still serving as President of the European Central Bank on that date. Any official announcement regarding her departure, resignation, or removal from office will be considered in determining the outcome. The market will settle based on publicly available information, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases from the Eurozone, shifts in the political landscape within the European Union, or any public statements from Christine Lagarde herself regarding her future plans could all influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events impacting the Eurozone’s stability could also play a role. Furthermore, any news regarding potential successors or internal discussions within the ECB could move this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information and perceived probabilities.
