TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track potential year-over-year growth in Chevron's monthly credit card spending for September 2026, measured against specific thresholds. The outcomes depend on reported data from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel. Each market corresponds to a different growth level, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of spending increase.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Chevron Monthly Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it to the same month in the prior year. The index, where 100 represents equal spending year-over-year, uses values above 100 to indicate growth. Each market has a unique threshold (e.g., above 100.5, above 103, etc.), and resolution occurs when the reported index exceeds the respective threshold. The first value reported by Carbon Arc determines the outcome, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded. The index is derived from Carbon Arc’s aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily. Kalshi explicitly states no affiliation with Chevron or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Chevron’s credit card spending. However, prediction markets often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from individual expert opinions. If analysts generally predict moderate spending growth, a significantly higher price in this market might indicate traders anticipate factors not fully captured in those forecasts, such as increased consumer confidence or a successful marketing campaign. Conversely, a lower price suggests traders are skeptical of optimistic analyst projections.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect whether Chevron’s actual monthly credit card spend for September 2026 exceeds the 100.5 threshold. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding Chevron’s credit card transactions, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout based on the final market price.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Major economic indicators, such as consumer spending reports and inflation rates, will likely play a role. News regarding Chevron’s marketing strategies, rewards programs, or partnerships could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in fuel prices or broader economic recessions could impact consumer credit card usage, and therefore, Chevron’s spend. Any significant announcements from Chevron regarding their financial performance or future outlook would also be closely watched by traders in this market.