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ChatGPT Outage by...?
polymarket

Will ChatGPT experience an outage by November 1, 2026?

Volume:
$1,065

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 3:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ChatGPT outage market tracks the current odds of an outage occurring by a specific date, along with the 24-hour trading volume and the total volume traded to date. You can see how the probabilities are shifting as traders buy and sell shares reflecting their beliefs about the likelihood of a significant disruption to ChatGPT's services. Currently, the total volume for this market is $1,065, with $30 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding potential ChatGPT outages. However, examining general predictions about the stability of large language models and the potential for service disruptions can offer a point of comparison. If analysts widely believe ChatGPT is highly reliable, we might expect to see lower probabilities reflected in this market. Conversely, if concerns about outages are prevalent in expert opinions, the odds here could be higher. This market offers a unique, quantified perspective compared to qualitative assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether a ChatGPT outage will occur by the resolution date. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome, ranging from 0 to 100. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of the outage risk.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a significant, widely reported outage of ChatGPT occurred before the specified date. An outage would need to be substantial enough to be documented by reliable news sources and generally acknowledged as a disruption to service. The precise definition of “significant” will be determined by Polymarket’s standard resolution procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from OpenAI regarding infrastructure upgrades, security vulnerabilities, or reported incidents impacting ChatGPT’s availability would likely cause price fluctuations. Major news stories detailing service disruptions, even if temporary, could also move the market. Additionally, broader events affecting cloud infrastructure providers that OpenAI relies on, or increased scrutiny from regulators regarding AI safety and reliability, could influence trader sentiment and therefore the odds in this market.