TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Elections
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
ChatGPT Outage by...?
polymarket

Will ChatGPT experience an outage by November 16, 2026?

Oct 22, 2026, 6:22 PM EST - Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,326
Volume 24h:
$470N/A
Liquidity:
$98
27%
Open interest:
$151N/A

November 15

 - Polymarket

November 15 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 15, 2026

Time left: 13d:14h:03m

ChatGPT Outage by November 15, 2026?

54%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 54% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 121% Low liquidity 13 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

November 15

Trade
54%
4%
Yes 97¢No 89¢
86¢
$98
$297
0%
11%
N/A
1w 6d 14h
Active
polymarket

October 31

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ChatGPT outage market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the probability of a significant ChatGPT outage occurring before the market’s close. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $479 and the total volume traded to date is $1,326. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market sentiment, allowing you to track changes in predictions over time and understand the level of activity surrounding this event.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a very high probability of a ChatGPT outage before the resolution date. This contrasts with some initial analyst forecasts, which predicted a lower likelihood of such an event in the near term. However, it’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on limited information and may not fully account for the complex factors that could contribute to an outage. This market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more accurate prediction than individual assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the outage risk. The current implied probability, as reflected in the share price, is 54.0%.

This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a significant, publicly reported outage of ChatGPT occurred before the specified date. The definition of “significant” will be determined by the platform based on widely accepted reporting standards. Traders should review the platform's documentation for specific details regarding the resolution process and the criteria used to determine the outcome of this market.

Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding infrastructure vulnerabilities within OpenAI, reports of increased system instability, or major security breaches could push prices higher, indicating a greater perceived risk of an outage. Conversely, announcements of successful infrastructure upgrades, improved system resilience, or proactive security measures could lower prices. Unexpected surges in ChatGPT usage, potentially straining system capacity, are also a key signal that could move this market.