TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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ChatGPT App Downloads in September
kalshi

ChatGPT App Downloads in September

Volume:
$87,588

Above 93

 - Kalshi

Above 93 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 93

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,345
N/A
N/A
$2,813
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 89

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,401
N/A
N/A
$2,260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 107

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,626
N/A
N/A
$7,797
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 101

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,969
N/A
N/A
$9,271
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 105

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,199
N/A
N/A
$5,538
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 121

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,821
N/A
N/A
$3,982
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 97

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,495
N/A
N/A
$6,102
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 115

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,721
N/A
N/A
$3,302
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 109

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,786
N/A
N/A
$2,847
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 111

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,487
N/A
N/A
$2,858
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 113

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,914
N/A
N/A
$2,817
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 117

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,824
N/A
N/A
$1,773
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the performance of the ChatGPT App Downloads index for September 2026, comparing it to the same month in the previous year. The index uses a base value of 100 to represent equal downloads year-over-year, with higher values indicating growth and lower values indicating decline. Market outcomes depend on whether the reported index exceeds specific thresholds.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads index for September 2026, with each threshold representing a distinct market outcome. All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for that month, and any subsequent corrections or revisions do not affect the settlement. The index is a year-over-year measure where 100 indicates equal downloads compared to the same month in the prior year, with values above 100 signifying growth and values below 100 indicating decline. For example, an index of 103 represents a 3% increase from the previous year’s September, while 97 represents a 3% decrease. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation or official connection with the underlying company, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names referenced are property of their respective owners. The markets collectively assess whether the index exceeds progressively higher thresholds, ranging from 101 to 121, with each threshold defining a separate 'Yes' outcome if met.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for the ChatGPT app download market, along with 24-hour volume of $23,032. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the likelihood of different download outcomes for September. The page updates in real time to reflect the latest market activity and gives you a snapshot of investor sentiment for this market without needing to visit the trading interface directly.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final determination will be based on official app store download statistics for September, ensuring an objective and transparent close. Traders should monitor announcements from major app distribution platforms as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes. Major product announcements, platform-specific updates, or changes in user behavior following new AI features may influence trader sentiment. Competitor app releases or widespread media coverage highlighting ChatGPT usage could also drive volume and price changes. As Oct 15, 2026 approaches, any data point showing unexpected download growth or decline will likely cause rapid market adjustments.