TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Ceará Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Ceará Governor election?

Volume:
$451,159

Elmano de Freitas

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 3:57 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Elmano de Freitas

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$155,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Elmano de Freitas

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,428
N/A
N/A
$5,680
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Ciro Gomes

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$184,947
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ciro Gomes

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,616
N/A
N/A
$7,800
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Eduardo Girão

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Eduardo Girão

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$818
N/A
N/A
$376
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Capitão Wagner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Roberto Cláudio

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Camilo Santana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 3

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 5

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N/A
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—
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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 7

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 9

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 11

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No
polymarket

Placeholder 13

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No
polymarket

Placeholder 15

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No
polymarket

Placeholder 17

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No
polymarket

Placeholder 19

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Settled
No
polymarket

Other

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—
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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 2

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 4

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No
polymarket

Placeholder 6

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 8

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 10

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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 12

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Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election in Brazil, forecasting which candidate will win. Currently, the consensus probability that Elmano de Freitas will win is 98.9%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). Keep an eye on the election itself, expected to take place in October 2026, as the results will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the official winner of the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election as declared by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the candidate who wins the majority of valid votes in the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election.
  • If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, the winner of the subsequent runoff election will be considered the winner.
  • If the election result is not officially known by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official decision of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will be followed for resolution.
  • Cancellation: If the election is officially cancelled and rescheduled, resolution will be based on the winner of the rescheduled election, adhering to the same resolution criteria.
Timing: Resolution will occur once the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) officially announces the winner of the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or on June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if no winner is declared by then.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified candidates—Elmano de Freitas, Ciro Gomes, or Eduardo Girão—wins the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election. Resolution will be based on official election results. The market is eligible for accelerated resolution when a consensus of major media outlets has called the election outcome, allowing for earlier determination before final official certification if the result is sufficiently clear and confirmed across multiple credible news sources.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* on, potentially revealing more about true beliefs and perceived probabilities. Polling data can be susceptible to biases, such as social desirability or sampling errors, whereas this market incentivizes accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the information incorporated into each – polls rely on surveys, while this market incorporates a wider range of data and expert analysis. It’s valuable to consider both sources when assessing the likely outcome.