TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:05h:02m
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This event tracks the performance of Cava's foot traffic in October 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the measured foot traffic exceeds specific thresholds, indicating varying levels of growth relative to the prior year.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Cava Foot Traffic index for October 2026, determined from finalized data recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after October ends. The index reflects year-over-year changes in foot traffic, with 100 representing equal traffic to the prior year, values above 100 indicating growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 90 to 108), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the index exceeds its respective threshold. The index is derived from mobile location data across over 200 million devices, adjusted for seasonality, weather, and holidays to ensure comparability with the same calendar days of the previous year.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Cava’s foot traffic. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This includes real-time data and the collective judgment of many traders. If analysts predict strong growth for Cava, we might expect to see the odds of exceeding 101 increase in this market, reflecting that positive outlook. Discrepancies could highlight differing assumptions or access to unique information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of Cava’s potential foot traffic. Traders can set their own buy and sell orders, influencing the market’s price discovery process.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported Cava foot traffic data for the month of October 2026. The specific data source used for verification will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the final reported foot traffic figures.
Several factors could influence the Cava foot traffic market. Major announcements regarding Cava’s expansion plans, new menu items, or marketing campaigns could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, such as consumer spending trends or restaurant industry performance, will likely play a role. Unexpected events, like significant changes in local demographics near Cava locations, or shifts in consumer preferences for fast-casual dining, could also move this market. Positive or negative press coverage regarding Cava’s food quality or customer service could also have an impact.