TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win the California Lieutenant Governor election?
Fiona Ma
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:16h:09m
Will Fiona Ma win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election?
$
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the markets resolve based on who wins the general election.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket relies on a three-source consensus and a delayed resolution deadline, while Kalshi resolves to 'Yes' if any listed candidate wins.Hero tip: Consider the risk of a candidate not listed on Kalshi winning, or the possibility of a delayed resolution on Polymarket if sources disagree. Diversify your positions if you're concerned about these scenarios.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on a three-source consensus (AP, Fox News, NBC) calling the race, with a fallback to official certification by July 31, 2027. This introduces a time delay and potential for disagreement between sources.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if any of a pre-defined list of candidates wins the election. This is a simpler approach but is vulnerable to a candidate not on the list winning.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if the specified candidate wins the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election according to the electoral system and either is inaugurated or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until a re-run election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more about true beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by biases or strategic responses, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. Discrepancies between polls and this market can signal uncertainty or hidden information not captured by surveys. It’s important to consider both data sources for a comprehensive understanding of the race.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can lead to varying price discovery. Additionally, differing market-making strategies and risk appetites among traders on each platform contribute to these discrepancies. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders, while Kalshi could have a broader range of participants. These dynamics can create temporary price differences, even though both markets ultimately aim to predict the same outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the California Lieutenant Governor election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual results of the election.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected developments in the campaigns of candidates could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data releases, especially those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, would also likely cause movement. Furthermore, any unforeseen controversies or scandals involving the candidates could dramatically alter the probabilities. Changes in the political landscape or national events influencing voter turnout could also play a role in how this market evolves leading up to Nov 10, 2026.