TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Will California's Immunology Research Bond Proposition pass on November 3, 2026?
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
- Polymarket
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:04h:26m
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
$
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
Description
Proposition 38 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow $8.4 billion in debt to research immune system-based technologies for treating conditions including cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Polymarket
Proposition 38 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow $8.4 billion in debt to research immune system-based technologies for treating conditions including cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a different level of confidence than traditional polls. While polling averages suggest a certain outcome, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, or unique information considered by market participants. It’s important to remember that prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting, as traders profit from correct predictions, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment than polls alone.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the California research bond passing. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased, the higher the price, and vice versa, creating a dynamic and responsive market. Currently, the top outcome, the California Immunology Research Bond Proposition, has a chance percentage of 63.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final vote count certified by the relevant election authorities in California. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. It’s important to monitor news sources and official election websites as the resolution date approaches for the latest updates.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Major endorsements from influential political figures or organizations could shift public opinion and impact trading activity. Unexpected economic news or changes in the political landscape could also play a role. Additionally, any significant media coverage or debates surrounding the bond’s potential impact on California’s research funding could cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to volatility in the market.
