TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Democratic Party
- Polymarket
Democratic Party - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:04h:29m
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-37 House seat?
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Intro
This market tracks which party will win the California 37th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, the Democratic Party winning is priced at 93.5%, while the Republican Party winning stands at 5.5%. The market will resolve based on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission following the November 4, 2026 election. Watch for candidate announcements and primary outcomes in the months leading up to Election Day, as these will be key signals for how the race develops.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in the CA-37 House election. However, it’s important to remember that these odds represent a different kind of data than traditional polls. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic trading, information advantages held by market participants, and differing methodologies. Comparing these to polling averages provides a broader view of the election landscape.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results reported by election authorities for the CA-37 House election. The winning candidate, as determined by the official vote count, will dictate the outcome of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will be paid out according to the contract terms at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 4, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, unexpected shifts in polling data, and impactful campaign events could all trigger price movements. Any news related to candidate scandals or changes in the political landscape could also lead to adjustments in the market’s implied probabilities. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal emerging insights and drive price changes in this market.
