TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Democratic Party
- Polymarket
Democratic Party - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:06h:44m
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat?
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Intro
This market tracks which party will win the California 29th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, the Democratic Party winning is priced at 92.5%, while the Republican Party winning stands at 6.5%. The market will resolve based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission following the conclusive calling of all House elections. Watch for candidate announcements and campaign developments leading up to the November 4, 2026 election date, which will determine the final outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in the CA-29 House election. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets and polling averages represent different types of data. Polls capture stated preferences at a specific point in time, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, and differing levels of engagement among poll respondents and market participants. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive understanding of the race’s dynamics.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by election authorities for the CA-29 House election. The market will determine which candidate has secured the most votes and won the election, based on these official results. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, aligned with the established electoral process.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant endorsements, debate performances, or the release of damaging information about a candidate, could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political trends could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, changes in polling data, while not directly reflected in the market, can indirectly affect trader perceptions and lead to price adjustments. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a candidate winning has the potential to move this market.
