TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Democratic Party
- Polymarket
Democratic Party - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 23h:12m:24s
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-14 House seat?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the Democratic Party will win the CA-14 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket, with the current probability of a Democratic win at 95.8% and the Republican Party at 0.6%. The market will resolve based on official results from the Federal Election Commission. Watch for the election results on November 3, 2026, which will determine the market outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in the CA-14 House election. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets and polls represent different types of data. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *risk* on an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, and differing levels of engagement among poll respondents and market participants. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view of the race.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by election authorities for the CA-14 House election. The market will determine which candidate has secured the majority of votes and will be declared the winner. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be able to claim their winnings at that time, based on the final prices of the contracts they held.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected developments in the candidates’ campaigns could all impact trader sentiment. Polling data releases, debate performances, and any unforeseen events affecting the political landscape will also be closely watched. Changes in national political trends or local economic conditions could also influence how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes in the CA-14 House election.
