TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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CA-12 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

CA-12 House Election Winner

Jan 28, 2026, 1:18 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$49,043
Volume 24h:
$261
1,431%
Liquidity:
$35,458
32%
Open interest:
$4,106N/A

Democratic Party

 - Polymarket

Democratic Party - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:02m

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 107%
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
99%
2%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.9¢
0.7¢
$13,800
$28,065
0.88%
2%
N/A
1d 2h 2m
Active
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.6¢
0.6¢
$21,658
$20,978
0.07%
2%
N/A
1d 2h 2m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the CA-12 House election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of contracts representing those outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $49,043, with $261 traded in the last day. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of various candidates winning the seat, and monitor changes in sentiment as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction on who will win this important election.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of one outcome in the CA-12 House election. It is important to note that prediction markets and polling averages represent different types of data. Polls capture a snapshot of stated preferences at a given time, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, and differing levels of engagement among participants. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive understanding of the race’s dynamics.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results declared by election authorities for the CA-12 House election. The winning candidate, as certified by these authorities, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor news sources and official election websites for updates as the election results are finalized. This ensures a clear and transparent determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or the release of new polling data could also cause price fluctuations. Significant economic news or national events could indirectly affect the race. Additionally, any developments regarding candidate fundraising or campaign strategy could move the market. Traders should closely follow these signals to assess potential shifts in the predicted outcome of the CA-12 House election.